The impact of currency volatility on the volume of grain transportation by rail, the First Deputy Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Yevgeny Gromyko announced a double reduction in wheat exports in August 2015 at the Agrorus 2015 exhibition. In turn, the chairman of the Russian Grain Union Arkady Zlochevsky on August 26 announced the complete suspension of grain exports, due to serious fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate and the growth of traders' costs due to the new system for calculating export duties, which came into force on July 1, 2015.
According to Igor Pavensky, Deputy General Director for Strategic Marketing of Rusagrotrans CJSC, grain exports in August will amount to about 3.85 million tons, which is 0.79 million tons less than in 2014 with a comparable harvest volume. Arkady Zlochevsky confirmed to the Russian Railways Partner the relevance of information about the actual cessation of grain sales both for export and for the state intervention fund. "The instability of the ruble exchange rate remains relevant and no one can say what the ruble exchange rate will be in two months," he said. – And this is just the deadline for receiving funds for sales to the intervention fund.
Export contracts are concluded only on the terms of direct sales with prepayment and dollar settlements." According to A. Zlochevsky, the new system for calculating export duties on grain, pegged to the dollar, does not allow grain exporters to calculate costs and increases the risks of concluding export contracts with a global trend of declining wheat prices. So, compared to 2014, they decreased from $240-250 per 1 ton to $180-185. The head of the RZS gives an example in which , at the rate of 71 rubles per dollar , the cost of a ton of grain is 12780 rubles . ($180), and the fee for the same volume is 890 rubles. At the same time, the Federal Customs Service calculates the duty not at the time of sale, but at the time of shipment of the grain batch. Recall that wheat accounts for up to 80% of Russian grain exports.
Therefore, a decrease in its exports will lead to a drop in total grain exports. According to Rusagrotrans, in the first 20 days of August 2015, the share of wheat in exports amounted to 79%, whereas a year earlier it reached 90.5%. The growth of exports of other grain crops, such as barley or corn, will not be able to completely neutralize the situation, according to the company. In the first half of 2015, according to Russian Railways, grain transportation showed the best dynamics among other cargoes, showing an increase of 15% in volumes. However, the July results showed a sharp slowdown. According to the company "Proserno", 1.28 million tons of wheat were exported in July, although July deliveries usually exceed 2 million tons. So, in 2014 2.7 million tons were exported, in 2013 - 2.1 million tons.
According to JSC "Russian Railways", for the 20 days of August, grain transportation volumes, although exceeding the company's own plans by more than 5%, but below the level of 2014 by more than 8%. Thus, the average daily loading of grain on the Russian Railways network in August 2014 amounted to 58.3 thousand tons, and this year 53.6 thousand tons. Russian Railways believes that by the end of August, the dynamics of export traffic volumes will lag behind last year by an average of 15%.
alexey lebedev